Management Finance

Topic: Use of moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend forecasting for currencies in project management finance

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Word count 1000- 1100

Spelling: UK English

Ref style: Harvard

Currency focus GBP/EUR (time scale 2004-2020)

Key Points

1) Introduction to the report/essay

Provide a short introduction about the paper

The aim is to showcase how moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend forecasting can be used for forecasting currencies, with particular focus GBP/EUR relationship, when used in project management financing with multiple currencies (currency hedging requirement, currency risk reduction)

Touch up quickly on triggering events like financial market crashes 2008/2009 and Brexit, as they drive economic uncertainty and therefore currency volatility.

Point out that currency hedging is used here to minimize risk and not for speculation.

2) Overview of the numerical methods used: moving average/ exponential smoothing/trend forecasting.

In this section make sure to provide an overview of the numerical methods used to develop the analysis. Please focus on “moving average” and “trend forecasting” as the main relevant methods for this paper.

3) Provide an example of the data that might be utilized and illustrate an understanding of SPSS analysis

not expecting pages of SPSS analysis here, this section needs to provide an illustration of the data that is used and a demonstration of the understanding of it.

Be selective in what is included here and explain fully how the data might be used in a project management environment that deals with multiple currencies ( here GBP/EUR), being exposed to volatile exchange rates and risk.

In terms of SPSS, demonstrate an understanding of this type of analysis and interpret outcomes

The time scale for forecasting data 2004-2020, a method used: moving average

4) Discuss the strengths and limitations of “moving average” and “trend forecasting”

What are the strength and limitations of “moving average” and “trend forecasting”? All models will have some limitations i.e. they may not be suitable for large volumes of information. There will also be benefits and discuss what the positive aspects of the model are and the negative.

5) Apply findings in a project management finance context

Elaborate in this section on how the model(s) can be applied in a project management finance context. Explain how to utilize basic forecasting methods to help to inform the development of a project.

6) Prediction of future trends for GBP/EUR (trend forecasting)

Predict the outcome of the currency movements until 2023 (trend forecasting). This might difficult due to the economic uncertainty of Brexit etc but should have an idea of the trajectory based on the evidence and what it is showing.

Outline also the limitations of this model due to immanent economic impacting factors.

Is there a need for aggressive currency hedging to minimize risk?

Point out that currency hedging is used here to minimize risk and not used for speculation.

The aim is to deliver a project within cost. For more information on  Management Finance check on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_management

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The post Management Finance appeared first on Australia Assessments.